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Climate risk scorer

List the ways the weather could hurt your organisation, score each one for how likely it is and how bad it would be, today and around 2050, and see where they land.

By Richard Harvie · Updated November 2026

Best done with the right people in the room: whoever looks after your buildings, IT, vehicles, health and safety and HR, and someone who runs a front-line service. The adaptation guide explains how to run the session. Nothing you type leaves your browser.

How to score: the 1 to 5 scale

Score	Likelihood	Impact
1	Rare: less than once in 20 years	Minor: a few hours of disruption, little cost
2	Unlikely: once in 10 to 20 years	Some disruption for a day or so; a small repair bill
3	Possible: once in 5 to 10 years	A site or service down for several days; a noticeable cost
4	Likely: once in 2 to 5 years	A service stopped for a week or more, possible harm to people, or a large cost
5	Almost certain: most years	Serious harm to people, a service lost for weeks, or major cost or damage to reputation

Multiply likelihood by impact: 1 to 4 is low, 5 to 9 medium, 10 to 14 high and 15 to 25 very high. For around 2050, assume at least 2°C of global warming, as the Climate Change Committee advises organisations to plan for, and remember that a building, boiler or vehicle you buy now may still be in use then.

What to do with the results

• Put the highest risks on your corporate risk register, each with an owner who controls the budget to fix it, such as the facilities manager for an overheating building.
• Look for risks that grow, not just the biggest today. A risk that jumps by 2050 matters for anything you buy now that will last that long.
• Check what your carbon plans change. In the book's worked example, a long power cut is a nuisance today but could stop an all-electric fleet in future.
• Review after every severe weather event, while people still remember what happened.